South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b46745e722aad161ce67d64275a2377755258b8a69c3fdd4ba0a0bf3676afbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CA Rosario Centralof Independiente del Valle, CA Rosario Central
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CA Rosario Central | 80c | 1,275$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.77 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Independiente del Valle | 20c | 1,207$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Independiente del Valle | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Independiente del Valle | 30c | 1,054$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.38 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Independiente del Valle | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Rosario Central | 78c | 393.43$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Independiente del Valle | 19c | 304.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Independiente del Valle | 25c | 240$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Independiente del Valle | 24c | 209.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Independiente del Valle | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed CA Rosario Central | 76c | 207$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Independiente del Valle | 21c | 191.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked CA Rosario Central | 72c | 186.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed CA Rosario Central | 80c | 171.43$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Independiente del Valle | 19c | 164.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Independiente del Valle | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked CA Rosario Central | 69c | 143.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Independiente del Valle | 22c | 123.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CA Rosario Central | 78c | 115.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Independiente del Valle | 32c | 93.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Independiente del Valle | 23c | 87.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed CA Rosario Central | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Independiente del Valle | 22c | 59.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Independiente del Valle | 23c | 55.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CA Rosario Central | 77c | 49.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 29.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CA Rosario Central | 77c | 26.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed CA Rosario Central | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CA Rosario Central | 76c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed CA Rosario Central | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…afcbbacked CA Rosario Central | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)this page
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 0.5Over won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 4.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.