South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada1f4f0490f444b7400b9222da89379b8b08c0948305b55e7751d0d4383eb79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64ce…944bbacked Over | 42c | 117,680$49,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,425.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 45,283$26,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,018.91 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 25,450$14,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,818.29 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 58c | 15,316$8,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,432.87 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 11,365$6,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,792.56 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 58c | 9,637$5,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,047.71 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 47c | 8,841$4,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,647.65 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 8,636$4,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,148.84 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 58c | 5,172$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.41 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 2,834$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.31 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Under | 57c | 1,547$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.17 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 42c | 1,248$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.57 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 63c | 1,011$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.96 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 727 | 50.5%367 W · 360 L | -25.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Under | 53c | 730.84$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…5715backed Over | 33c | 665.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 53c | 561.6$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 177 | 39.5%70 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 31c | 451.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 69c | 434.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 52c | 413.18$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.59 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 46c | 409.05$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 77c | 389.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Under | 40c | 385.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 375.28$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.68 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 54c | 332.85$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 3,807 | 38.4%1,463 W · 2,344 L | -29.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 40c | 298.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…5b2dbacked Over | 71c | 279.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 58c | 262$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 31c | 248.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.76 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 58c | 239.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 56c | 216.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 31c | 162.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 1,324 | 50.1%663 W · 661 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Under | 58c | 155.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 59c | 153.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5370…84adbacked Over | 68c | 147.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Under | 58c | 144.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Under | 53c | 136.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 58c | 115.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 343 | 65.9%226 W · 117 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 109.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…1a39backed Under | 49c | 109.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 29c | 97.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 2,648 | 54.2%1,436 W · 1,212 L | +27.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 58c | 95.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 55c | 89.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,502 | 45.9%690 W · 812 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 59c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 57c | 75.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…3e18backed Over | 65c | 57.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 57c | 54.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 48.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Under | 49c | 46.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…664dbacked Over | 43c | 43.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Over | 65c | 42.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…c020backed Over | 47c | 42.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 57c | 41.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 2,346 | 51.4%1,207 W · 1,139 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 67c | 37.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 337 | 58.5%197 W · 140 L | +32.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 36.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2,175 | 43.6%948 W · 1,227 L | -56.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 58c | 35.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…6bcfbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 56c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 58c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Under | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e32…0502backed Under | 58c | 18.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 1.5this page
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 0.5Over won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 2.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 4.5Under won
- Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5)CA Rosario Central won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.