South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b4affb11519a4c45604a75dab2ddfc58eeb132d85b0d8a8b5a44118f42b9e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 65c | 1,614$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.82 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 41c | 1,440$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.68 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 54c | 1,190$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.39 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 1,004$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.7 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 972.26$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.99 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…5806backed Yes | 64c | 770.68$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.69 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 33c | 685.14$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.11 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 529.15$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 73c | 481.55$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.3 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 27c | 404.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 69c | 334.49$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 318.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 312.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.39 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 69c | 250$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 244.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…78e1backed No | 61c | 197.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 68c | 170$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7d54backed Yes | 29c | 140.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 39c | 134.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 17c | 129.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 43c | 118$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Yes | 77c | 105.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 28c | 99.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed No | 30c | 98.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 24c | 97.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 37c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 87.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed No | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed No | 39c | 67.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked No | 39c | 64.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 55c | 56.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 45c | 54.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…49c9backed Yes | 48c | 49.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 26c | 44.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 50c | 37.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 52c | 33.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 40c | 28.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 43c | 23.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…1fbbbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Bolívar vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-08-11?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-08-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.