MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b8e57ab07d18b311e8b24c29914df63d845dd8781ef71d2fe5a13ca27f453e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 505$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 501.17$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.73 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 497.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 16c | 421.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 4c | 375$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 4c | 320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 252.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Cleveland Guardians | 11c | 102.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 69.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 47.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 35.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4453backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6710…3374backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.