MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1563acb394a7e2f4b592c6281b9216a51733ffbd52c7335feb780796dc139cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 12,047$6,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,581.54 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 2,855$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 2,229$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 20c | 2,149$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.06 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 2,026$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.22 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 46c | 1,639$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.82 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 1,550$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.72 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 1,414$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.52 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…766dbacked Under | 58c | 1,203$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,089$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 877.6$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.47 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 695$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 527$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.69 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 46c | 517.6$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 457.31$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.36 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 53c | 389.15$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.9 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 379$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 54c | 188.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 27c | 163.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 161.03$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 117.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 74c | 115.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 24c | 99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 22c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 46c | 95.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 48c | 94.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 27c | 86.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 46c | 74.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 47c | 69.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Under | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 27c | 59.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 30c | 49.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 59c | 47.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 47c | 34.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 47c | 34.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Over | 48c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 29.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 55c | 29.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 26.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 54c | 21.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.