NHL · resolved market
KHL: Traktor vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bb2599766fc2b104d32fb93ee66a57a1c6f501a7590788c9a723dc55f04006c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Traktorof Traktor, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,730 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 38c | 1,247$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.03 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Traktor | 70c | 372.26$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 24c | 359.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Traktor | 67c | 330$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 26c | 298.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Traktor | 61c | 296.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Traktor | 76c | 275$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +10.5wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Traktor | 62c | 194.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 37c | 160$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Traktor | 75c | 136$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Traktor | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf2…85b7backed Traktor | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Traktor | 52c | 90.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Traktor | 74c | 82.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Traktor | 56c | 80.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Traktor | 73c | 80.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Traktor | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Traktor | 74c | 68.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked Traktor | 61c | 64.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 26c | 64.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Traktor | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…f6e5backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 25c | 59.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…6e1bbacked Traktor | 79c | 59.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 37c | 54.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Traktor | 69c | 54.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Traktor | 65c | 54.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…6570backed Traktor | 78c | 43.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Traktor | 74c | 41.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Traktor | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Traktor | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Traktor | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…641bbacked Traktor | 76c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.