NHL · resolved market
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bbd41ba36e7590f81e36dabaf3e8f7a943ba3cd557d24bcf0f3e0060d437c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utahof Utah, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b2b…540bbacked Utah | 37c | 1,060$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 805$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.2 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Utah | 37c | 729$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.27 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs | 63c | 650$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 560.85$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.86 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…4bc2backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 420$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Utah | 36c | 418.39$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.77 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…4e60backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Utah | 36c | 360$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Maple Leafs | 43c | 350.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 340.32$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.21 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Utah | 54c | 302.75$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Utah | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Utah | 35c | 285.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.69 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…2d77backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 240$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Utah | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Utah | 35c | 186$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Utah | 36c | 168.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Utah | 36c | 167$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe173…c529backed Utah | 60c | 164.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Maple Leafs | 61c | 135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 109.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 101.61$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Utah | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Maple Leafs | 23c | 88.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cd…316abacked Maple Leafs | 52c | 77.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Utah | 50c | 77.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Utah | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 138 | 60.9%84 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 50.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Maple Leafs | 46c | 42.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Utah | 39c | 37.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Utah | 35c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 35.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Maple Leafs | 39c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 27.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Utah | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Utah | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. UtahUtah won
- Maple Leafs vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.