TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Utah

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Utahof Maple Leafs, Utah
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,628,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,649,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,628,886 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 398 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Maple Leafs43c1,103,545$472,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472,096.8710840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Utah57c439,237$250,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188,871.7756152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed Utah57c220,776$125,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,933.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Utah58c178,058$103,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,784.1715953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Utah58c85,174$49,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,076.781,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Utah58c72,077$41,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,620.5879350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Utah58c60,000$34,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,20048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Utah58c60,000$34,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,4008657%49 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Utah58c53,894$31,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,485.7761953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Utah57c37,776$21,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,243.6821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs40c37,518$15,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,117.741,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Maple Leafs0c22,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018520.5%38 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf90e…0b56backed Utah57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.8913449.3%66 W · 68 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Maple Leafs42c18,451$7,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,772.4128251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Utah57c17,500$9,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,524.9632946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Utah79c16,415$12,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,488.11,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Maple Leafs43c15,000$6,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,449.9928353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Maple Leafs42c13,605$5,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,666.1360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Maple Leafs42c13,095$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5008247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Maple Leafs1c11,633$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4926344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Maple Leafs43c10,814$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.988134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Utah58c10,037$5,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,215.5433243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Maple Leafs43c10,000$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,28061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Utah57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Utah57c9,500$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.2233652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Maple Leafs43c8,800$3,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,783.8214940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs21c8,386$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,765.6838738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Utah58c8,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,36021036.2%76 W · 134 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Utah57c7,777$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,344.1113363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs42c6,534$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.631,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs42c6,500$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7301,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Utah59c6,000$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.538453.6%45 W · 39 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Utah59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.9933151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Utah58c5,660$3,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.3251452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Utah77c5,632$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.6389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Maple Leafs4c5,564$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.516031.7%19 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Maple Leafs9c5,300$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.1928842%121 W · 167 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Utah57c5,135$2,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.0526058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Utah56c5,122$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.821,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Utah58c5,048$2,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,132.031,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs42c5,047$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,097.522,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs0c5,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Utah57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,15013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Utah58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.975152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Maple Leafs0c4,850$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Maple Leafs43c4,781$2,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05628152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Maple Leafs42c4,683$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.862231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Maple Leafs35c4,566$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.9833345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Utah59c4,500$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.9810848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Utah78c4,034$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.1732744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Maple Leafs42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6801233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Maple Leafs25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Utah58c3,942$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.6119555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Utah59c3,900$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.9861959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Maple Leafs43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010746.7%50 W · 57 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Utah62c3,452$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.4431550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Utah58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.2850049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Maple Leafs43c3,395$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,46026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Maple Leafs2c3,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705425.9%14 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Maple Leafs28c2,790$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.7534538.6%133 W · 212 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Utah57c2,595$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.6625449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Utah77c2,537$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.3114753.7%79 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Maple Leafs25c2,500$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63570249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs30c2,480$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.361,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs1c2,444$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.447450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Utah59c2,420$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.5983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Maple Leafs42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008368.7%57 W · 26 L+12.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+30.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3560…e3e3backed Maple Leafs44c2,278$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.4550%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Utah57c2,250$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Utah76c2,239$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.21,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dff…b486backed Utah59c2,200$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9021181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+68.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe841…2edebacked Maple Leafs41c2,200$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Maple Leafs43c2,000$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8552445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Maple Leafs43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86018547%87 W · 98 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Utah57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Utah58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8407338.4%28 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80e0…341cbacked Utah58c1,740$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b4c…c171backed Maple Leafs42c1,727$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0faf…833cbacked Maple Leafs6c1,658$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Utah70c1,654$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.096958%40 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Maple Leafs43c1,650$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.524845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs35c1,513$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5253636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Maple Leafs43c1,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65032650%163 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Utah57c1,400$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.189249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs42c1,400$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.260249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Maple Leafs43c1,396$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.284346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Maple Leafs15c1,383$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2099547.4%45 W · 50 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Maple Leafs41c1,253$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.5313147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Maple Leafs40c1,231$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.3925045.2%113 W · 137 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Utah57c1,200$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51151044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Maple Leafs42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Maple Leafs42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.87138%27 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd63b…9c25backed Maple Leafs2c1,165$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a29…b807backed Maple Leafs40c1,117$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs38c1,052$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.352,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Maple Leafs25c1,031$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7313333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Maple Leafs34c1,009$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.749045.3%222 W · 268 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Maple Leafs41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41019645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Maple Leafs42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42012947.3%61 W · 68 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Utah57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4309853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.