Commodities · resolved market
Gold (GC) Up or Down on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bbfbaa85119db0f022db9fb4cc1ef43d93a9dc18c2ba2909e3bb01ded48c206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 1c | 4,849$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9747backed Up | 78c | 1,098$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…0f0abacked Down | 1c | 1,081$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Up | 76c | 677.51$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Up | 68c | 590$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +329.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Down | 33c | 580.96$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.03 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Down | 13c | 457.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Down | 32c | 445.84$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Down | 37c | 384.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Up | 70c | 331.89$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Up | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…4d70backed Down | 21c | 241.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 24c | 241.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Down | 22c | 193.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Down | 14c | 141.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Down | 20c | 103.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…60f5backed Up | 79c | 89.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Down | 36c | 81.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Up | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Down | 23c | 60.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6a…f389backed Down | 28c | 53.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0dd8backed Up | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Up | 80c | 32.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…c82bbacked Up | 71c | 32.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…15a4backed Up | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Up | 73c | 29.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…5826backed Up | 68c | 29.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…b441backed Down | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.