Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c24b5bf85f88b38128c5f9a6ce0d4796ba0cb1d0d34905daca618a7eceae56b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,071$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.68 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 455.86$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 12c | 271.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 45c | 219.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 48c | 210$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 52c | 192.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 64c | 187.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 24c | 181.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 70c | 150.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 36c | 144.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 141.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 139.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 35c | 118.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 64c | 118$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 110.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 104.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 102.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 80c | 78.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…a395backed Yes | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 80c | 73.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 77c | 69.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 39c | 57.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 19c | 52.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 49.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 48c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 66c | 45.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…8810backed No | 75c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce81…b6aebacked No | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 46c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.