Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa7f1612587e110f94d2b247f97817448ee5629f9d0b47d1ea13389a0faa4d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 1,601$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.05 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 932.61$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.39 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 580.37$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.21 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 72c | 401.75$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.9 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 394.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.42 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 378.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 31c | 374.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.27 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 17c | 310.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 273.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 263.44$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.41 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 253.05$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 224.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.21 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 14c | 216.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.13 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 60c | 209.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 76c | 208.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 180.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 14c | 177.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 171.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 152$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 22c | 149.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.53 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 142.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 20c | 134.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 124.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 23c | 120.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 12c | 104.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 14c | 103.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 45c | 100.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 14c | 90.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 83.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 79c | 79.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 64c | 77.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 72.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 70.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 50c | 66.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 32c | 62.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 59.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 20c | 57.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 51c | 50.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 50.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 24c | 47.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 33c | 44.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 43.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 39c | 39.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 39c | 35.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 67c | 32.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 17.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 15.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…1d5bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 14.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.