Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0225d81f3a6e8cc0fd9f08f479aa0618c151eff60ab957120013c721cb503a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 694.99$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.45 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 33c | 430.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 345.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 298.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 68c | 244.41$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 20c | 106.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 76c | 100.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 99.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 34c | 88.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 18c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 67.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 61.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 50.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 78c | 49.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 47.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 47.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 46.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 44.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 42.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 658 | 38.8%255 W · 403 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 32.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 67c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 73c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…6b35backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4c…d888backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 18.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 238 | 73.1%174 W · 64 L | +28.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.