TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,500
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,500 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1704…b0e1backed Yes2c6,795$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.652272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes4c1,437$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5972042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes6c1,098$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.951,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes3c1,087$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.712046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes6c695.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6245148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes13c486.64$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.899137.4%34 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+33.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c399.33$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No48c251.98$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5529345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes11c233.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6929948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes9c216.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.036439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e7…c275backed Yes21c200.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.758234.1%28 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No74c197.76$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7438860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No56c194.75$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No79c187.63$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7486952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No64c166.71$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6439951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes42c163$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4640265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.729747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No55c149.98$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4916046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c139.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9517947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c134.14$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.145,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes10c127.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.641,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed Yes53c126.06$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.819345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes44c124.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.892,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes35c121.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c105.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes43c102.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes43c102.69$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No50c101.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.72,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4317440.8%71 W · 103 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No45c84.57$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3118142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes48c81.93$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.352,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No47c68.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1818046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d0…b73abacked No48c65.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8310757.9%62 W · 45 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.752,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No73c61.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.422645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.256048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…3208backed Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.810436.5%38 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc6…dde3backed Yes51c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.583050%15 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c57.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.432,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c53.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.442,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes40c53.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4182742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1049…8cc3backed Yes51c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.034242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c52.87$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.934,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed No71c52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.084854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.275,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.617144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2617644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes40c49.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…8948backed No44c48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.88922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No57c46.86$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0333746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes33c46.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7275…0225backed No62c46.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.523240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No56c45.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.433,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.84,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes24c44.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed No59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3724451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes34c38.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1955954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c38.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6646240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No58c37.55$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.771,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe709…a381backed No45c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.288258.5%48 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No58c34.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No52c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.321,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No80c33.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.71,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No64c32.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7149551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed Yes53c31.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7324546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x902e…b45dbacked No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.65754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes54c29.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.830849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes47c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No61c27.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.553,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No54c24.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.248,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes49c23.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No72c23.57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No57c23.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.11,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd39…5f76backed No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.089569.5%66 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes52c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4481855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes51c21.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.821451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed No73c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.26162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No65c18.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4329769.4%206 W · 91 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No76c14.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.541,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.