Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2971b07b8b533a59e880e1f75ac73a6e77c51285f0465532b395bbd99d6af08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 2c | 6,795$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,437$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 1,098$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 3c | 1,087$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 6c | 695.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 13c | 486.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 399.33$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 48c | 251.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.55 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 11c | 233.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 9c | 216.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 21c | 200.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 74c | 197.76$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 194.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 79c | 187.63$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 64c | 166.71$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 42c | 163$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 55c | 149.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 139.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 134.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 127.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 53c | 126.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 44c | 124.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 121.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 105.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 102.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 43c | 102.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 101.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 84.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 81.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 68.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 48c | 65.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 61.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 57.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 53.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 53.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 52.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 40c | 49.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed No | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 46.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 33c | 46.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 62c | 46.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 45.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 24c | 44.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 34c | 38.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 38.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 58c | 37.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 33.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 53c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 54c | 29.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 27.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 24.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 23.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 51c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 18.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.