Tennis · resolved market
ITF Castelo Branco: Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Marques
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c2f452d1d86371fd529ec2c19fd4291789014b65d195701a1b68eaccacd9c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiago Cacaoof Tiago Cacao, Goncalo Marques
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Goncalo Marques | 70c | 1,673$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.1 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tiago Cacao | 63c | 1,044$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.73 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Tiago Cacao | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Goncalo Marques | 30c | 762.69$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.99 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tiago Cacao | 64c | 384.69$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Goncalo Marques | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Goncalo Marques | 69c | 185.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Tiago Cacao | 58c | 168.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…de5ebacked Goncalo Marques | 53c | 122.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 244 | 59.4%145 W · 99 L | +21.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tiago Cacao | 63c | 113.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Goncalo Marques | 40c | 103.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tiago Cacao | 75c | 76.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Tiago Cacao | 61c | 74.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…3ff8backed Tiago Cacao | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Tiago Cacao | 60c | 69.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Tiago Cacao | 60c | 69.28$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tiago Cacao | 68c | 63.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Tiago Cacao | 60c | 58.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Tiago Cacao | 43c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Tiago Cacao | 57c | 50.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Goncalo Marques | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Tiago Cacao | 49c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Goncalo Marques | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Goncalo Marques | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Tiago Cacao | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Goncalo Marques | 42c | 31.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Tiago Cacao | 52c | 29.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Tiago Cacao | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Goncalo Marques | 52c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 244 | 60.2%147 W · 97 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Goncalo Marques | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Goncalo Marques | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Goncalo Marques | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Goncalo Marques | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Tiago Cacao | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62f…1781backed Goncalo Marques | 70c | 14.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 266 | 64.7%172 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.