Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c323f91e64e2aca12eda452a57726461d5abea44c31b5fcc1ca352f63a20643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 75c | 455.84$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 327.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 151.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 134.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 116.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 111.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 20c | 104.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 56c | 102.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 97.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 89.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…1f81backed Yes | 47c | 85.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 58c | 69.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 66.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 61.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 57.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 71c | 55.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 51.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 50.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed No | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 43.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 62c | 40.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 39.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed No | 56c | 38.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 45c | 38.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 37.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 40c | 33.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed Yes | 42c | 33.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…8caabacked Yes | 41c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 31.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 79c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8e50backed Yes | 41c | 28.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 25.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 55c | 23.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 48c | 21.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.