Olympics · resolved market
Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Team Pursuit at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c484b447e583d0f187be9bb2f524b5d03bed033ebbf7032b71fa9f5d38e0ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 65c | 2,033$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…05c1backed No | 8c | 1,415$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +255.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 41c | 469.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed No | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…fcb0backed Yes | 25c | 358$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 59c | 282$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 75c | 274.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 47c | 214.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…5adcbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 78c | 183.14$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 179.38$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 34c | 155.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ad…c8dcbacked Yes | 35c | 133.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 59c | 120.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 43c | 115$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 41c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 53c | 92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…65a4backed Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 48c | 41.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 33c | 38.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9601…bd5dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Team Pursuit at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will China win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Team Pursuit at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Team Pursuit at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Team Pursuit at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's Team Pursuit at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.