Middle East · resolved market
Will OPEC hike production by next meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c56b8d7b69bee2c0d9ec5d8a93f632a6f27d147844c8dfa726704e1fbd08d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,355$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.79 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 58c | 1,281$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.7 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 79c | 960.3$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.74 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 856.88$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.04 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 64c | 717.75$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.05 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 597.67$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.1 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 435.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.42 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 423$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.96 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…f710backed Yes | 35c | 336$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fba…8a7dbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 52c | 241.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…9781backed No | 80c | 227.9$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 20c | 202.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 58c | 186.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…1e7cbacked Yes | 32c | 149.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 32c | 84.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…f421backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 36c | 76.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked Yes | 28c | 43.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.