NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6c7758cc2cae9e3e82cf51f539b1dcacd6f39cf6a9175ade8dfcfb91a9ff42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 54c | 3,940$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.83 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 57c | 1,748$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.46 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 47c | 1,072$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.74 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 832.31$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 660.11$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 42c | 599.48$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.78 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 47c | 240$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 190.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 158.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 44c | 124.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 96.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 87.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 43c | 63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 46c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…debdbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. PacersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.