NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f96b22d250e9c3e4d806715ef470d0ac2264aa2bb9122bf9d2fda73d722557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Pacers | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 274 | 35.4%97 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 41c | 869$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 50c | 572$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 59c | 555$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Celtics | 59c | 351.46$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Celtics | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 48c | 231$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 41c | 180.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Celtics | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Pacers | 42c | 166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Pacers | 42c | 148$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 51c | 141$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Pacers | 42c | 140$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Celtics | 58c | 138.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Pacers | 42c | 135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Pacers | 42c | 132$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Pacers | 54c | 125$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Pacers | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Pacers | 42c | 112$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Celtics | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Celtics | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Celtics | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Pacers | 42c | 93.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Pacers | 42c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Celtics | 51c | 86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Celtics | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Celtics | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Celtics | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Pacers | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Celtics | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Celtics | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Celtics | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Pacers | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Celtics | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Pacers | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Celtics | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pacers | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Celtics | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Celtics | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Celtics | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Celtics | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Celtics | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Celtics | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Celtics | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Celtics | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Celtics | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…cbf7backed Celtics | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Celtics | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Celtics | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Celtics | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Celtics | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Celtics | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Celtics | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Celtics | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Celtics | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Celtics | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Celtics | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Celtics | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Celtics | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Celtics | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Celtics | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Celtics | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. PacersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.