NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12ae2813605f61fc106e4553ad631598c7ab9e0d77dfe192fa0ffae51b7f309c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6576…6cc5backed Celtics | 54c | 30,005$16,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,802.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…a744backed Celtics | 54c | 22,194$11,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,209.24 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…2d4bbacked Pacers | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…0caabacked Pacers | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c20…7d4fbacked Pacers | 46c | 13,325$6,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,129.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Pacers | 46c | 8,869$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.74 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…28bdbacked Celtics | 56c | 7,243$4,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.71 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 44c | 6,106$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 45c | 1,918$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.17 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Celtics | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.17 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 44c | 585$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Celtics | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 45c | 482.84$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Pacers | 44c | 397$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Pacers | 45c | 164$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pacers | 44c | 144.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Pacers | 45c | 134$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Pacers | 46c | 132$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Pacers | 45c | 124$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Pacers | 45c | 113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Pacers | 48c | 105.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Celtics | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Pacers | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Pacers | 45c | 94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Pacers | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Celtics | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Pacers | 45c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Pacers | 45c | 73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Celtics | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Pacers | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Celtics | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Pacers | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Celtics | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Pacers | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Pacers | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…67d8backed Celtics | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Celtics | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Celtics | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Celtics | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Celtics | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Celtics | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Celtics | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Celtics | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Celtics | 55c | 34.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Celtics | 55c | 34.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Celtics | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Celtics | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Celtics | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Celtics | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…1cddbacked Celtics | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Celtics | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Celtics | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Celtics | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Celtics | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Celtics | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Celtics | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Celtics | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Celtics | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Celtics | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Celtics | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Celtics | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Celtics | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pacers | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Celtics | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Celtics | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Celtics | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Celtics | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Celtics | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Celtics | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)Celtics won
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-5.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. PacersCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 220.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.