Premier League · resolved market
Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6de87975656c9c128337fbf94c2ebf57ef3351fd2fc5b536a3b454aa9a4367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30d6…8c9dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,745$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…24b0backed Yes | 16c | 607.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 12c | 589.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 16c | 387.23$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 11c | 282.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 236.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 203 | 7.4%15 W · 188 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 17c | 190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 166.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 9c | 162$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 115.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 103.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 77c | 94.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 93.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 91.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 19c | 85.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…d71dbacked Yes | 25c | 81.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 78c | 63.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…d399backed No | 78c | 51.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked No | 79c | 50.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes | 23c | 44.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8986…be93backed Yes | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0382…f063backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next?this page
- Will Mohamed Salah play in Egyptian Premier League next?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah play in Premier League next?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah play in Serie A next?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah play in Süper Lig next?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.