Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca1e876ff0765bb31458fc43e2c3bb59353d3cffa6f4668e3e98ba12425893d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 739.99$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 358.35$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 348.14$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 48c | 309.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 58c | 285.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 238.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 226.02$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7a…11e8backed Yes | 49c | 199.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 185.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 55c | 168.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 157.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 132.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 114.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 107.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 50c | 98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…697cbacked Yes | 59c | 95.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 95.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 94.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 55c | 89.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 88.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 56c | 87.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 59c | 76.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 58c | 70.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 68.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 63.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 51c | 63.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 61.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 54.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 54.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 53.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 43c | 52.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 59c | 50.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 49c | 50.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 35c | 47.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 77c | 46.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 44c | 44.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 43.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 58c | 43.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 51c | 41.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 52c | 39.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 38.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 75c | 38.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 34c | 38.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 38.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 45c | 36.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 58c | 34.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 43c | 31.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 72c | 30.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 59c | 28.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 28.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 58c | 25.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 43c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 55c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 51c | 21.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 56c | 21.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 64c | 20.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 55c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.