NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca66b5ae024d4aefb76cbff8fd808535cc94c201e9b01db5b4779799f9ce304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ee…ca3cbacked Under | 55c | 18,283$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,282.92 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 9,224$4,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,217.62 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 7,019$3,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,399.8 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 4,246$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.82 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Under | 68c | 1,450$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.5 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 32c | 1,257$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.24 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 51c | 1,178$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.1 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 51c | 1,050$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.5 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 1,004$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.84 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 40c | 716.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 3c | 675.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 42c | 632.31$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.44 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 564$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.16 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 334.29$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 60c | 213.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 51c | 210.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 30c | 163.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…4282backed Under | 56c | 161.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…5f92backed Over | 41c | 157$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 138.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.84 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 39c | 135$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 40c | 112.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 50c | 99.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 62c | 84.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 57c | 79.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecf…57efbacked Under | 52c | 71.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 62c | 67.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 44c | 55.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 40c | 52.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 41c | 47.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 57c | 40.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 57c | 40.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Over | 47c | 32.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 49c | 29.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…e29dbacked Over | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 23.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 57c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5this page
- Bucks vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.