NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbccc83c283821857d84715b5fb88a5b56bb8f7ebc76c7813d589bb4a15868b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 52c | 7,864$4,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,736.67 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 3,594$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.8 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 3,192$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.45 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f64…098ebacked Under | 51c | 1,824$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 429.82$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 297$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 187.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 122.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 44c | 115$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 78.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 66.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2088…f932backed Over | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 57.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 193 | 46.6%90 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 57c | 39.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf9…ca87backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 23.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215f…a99abacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5this page
- Bucks vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.