NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d48dd7df97cef06557dd58f51bb27c5675bc7b4061327f148a3141b3d386bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Bucks, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bucks | 53c | 7,713$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,088.13 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 44c | 5,469$2,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.98 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 55c | 4,550$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets | 60c | 3,454$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.07 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bucks | 41c | 2,919$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.85 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Bucks | 58c | 2,402$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.54 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Bucks | 53c | 2,200$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Bucks | 53c | 1,879$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 42c | 1,407$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 55c | 1,192$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Bucks | 67c | 1,000$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 55c | 735.17$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.3 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets | 33c | 591.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.06 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 47c | 561.73$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Nuggets | 48c | 510.46$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.46 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bucks | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Nuggets | 45c | 285$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Nuggets | 41c | 254.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bucks | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300e…dfb3backed Bucks | 53c | 197.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Nuggets | 42c | 181$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Bucks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Bucks | 30c | 146.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Nuggets | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…97dfbacked Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Bucks | 52c | 71.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 57c | 71.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bucks | 56c | 70.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Bucks | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Nuggets | 44c | 60.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Nuggets | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Bucks | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…edffbacked Bucks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bucks | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Bucks | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Bucks | 63c | 16.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)this page
- Bucks vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.