TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,183 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xead0…f3babacked Under54c20,000$10,800 inWon+$9,199.981,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over45c10,500$4,725 inLost-$4,72554539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c5,479$2,575 inLost-$2,575.339,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over46c3,221$1,488 inLost-$1,488.392,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over49c1,932$947 inLost-$946.683,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Under54c1,600$864 inWon+$7365658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c1,394$641 inLost-$641.154,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under54c951.67$514 inWon+$437.772,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c845.36$376 inWon+$469.484,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…7dd4backed Over56c766.93$429 inLost-$429.485850%29 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c537$256 inLost-$256.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over47c300$140 inLost-$1401,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over47c200$95 inLost-$94.520353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over47c191.49$90 inLost-$9066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$502,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3187…896dbacked Over49c81.63$40 inLost-$402133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Over51c78.43$40 inLost-$4015752.2%82 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over45c75$34 inLost-$34.0568940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under53c73.96$39 inWon+$34.762,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf26b…f3b8backed Over46c43.48$20 inLost-$2010426.9%28 W · 76 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bc2…dd84backed Over49c42.78$21 inLost-$20.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over49c32.85$16 inLost-$15.942,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over47c31.92$15 inLost-$1593849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc95f…357fbacked Under51c27.5$14 inWon+$13.4816852.4%88 W · 80 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over47c25$12 inLost-$11.7539756.7%225 W · 172 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.