MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca77db3db4a4c3f28db3d887f8c7b0884febc9fd4d23d30003c5cb124397f9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof San Diego Padres, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 59c | 4,150$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 4,059$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 21c | 2,040$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 1,505$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.26 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 62c | 1,445$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 76c | 1,405$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 10c | 539.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 76c | 388$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 56c | 275.46$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 240$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 113.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets | 66c | 103.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Mets | 80c | 89.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed New York Mets | 57c | 80.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Diego Padres | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 61.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 59.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed New York Mets | 66c | 55.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked New York Mets | 55c | 54.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Mets | 59c | 50.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 44.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 75c | 42.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed New York Mets | 60c | 41.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed New York Mets | 59c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…3269backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 37.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed New York Mets | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked New York Mets | 52c | 22.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed New York Mets | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.