MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67364ab6a1984920bb34473616daef2efcc8c4e83d9af9551f5be42c902aa6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 59,729$30,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,462.03 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 50c | 50,000$24,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,249.99 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 49c | 20,300$9,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,353 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 50c | 17,674$8,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,917.69 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 14,218$7,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,108.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 13,284$6,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,774.84 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 2,802$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 2,602$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 2,473$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.46 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 1,668$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.78 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,653$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 15c | 795.13$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Under | 64c | 429.69$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 394$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 26c | 309$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 27c | 296.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 282.45$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.23 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Under | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 233.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 209.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 50c | 187.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 49c | 154.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 50c | 142.37$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 135.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Under | 51c | 132$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 51c | 98.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…1030backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 94.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 74c | 90.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 48c | 86.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 81.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 51c | 77.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 50c | 48.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 50c | 47.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 52c | 39.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…02f0backed Under | 48c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 50c | 29.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ca…22c9backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Under | 55c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.