MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cab787aa6f8f450ae272c515b9206e8c1ddd57b659754a98362ba3188022505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 5,333$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.38 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 3,610$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.16 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 32c | 2,377$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 1,684$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.67 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,352$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.62 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 950.63$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.38 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 11c | 770.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 448$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.76 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 444.44$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 333.33$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 252.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Angels | 7c | 227.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 205.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 12c | 120.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 74.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 71.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 68.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 61.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 60.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 46.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 42.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 36.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 30.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Los Angeles Angels | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Los Angeles Angels | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.