MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2424ce5e55d747db94bd00035fb31b458db6c7dc050ba3ce1e95e7ee713716c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 7,246$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.38 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 5,666$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 3,551$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 3,068$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 2,823$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 2,659$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.07 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 40c | 1,405$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.7 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 24c | 1,339$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 644.73$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.39 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 514.76$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.48 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 461.04$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 458.34$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 275.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 235.43$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.95 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 225$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 219.6$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 211.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 205.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 205$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 191.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 183.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Los Angeles Angels | 20c | 165$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 151.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 141.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…69f9backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 137.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 106.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Angels | 24c | 91.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 91.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 76.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 74.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 74.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…263dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 61.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 52.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 51.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 50.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 48.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 47.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 40.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 31.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 23.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.