MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce374d408f22703efcfb1e369c9220bf4736469782d103df7ba320ccec575bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 14,995$8,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,362.81 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Over | 44c | 11,363$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,363.28 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…648dbacked Over | 43c | 6,209$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,539.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 5,001$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.01 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Over | 44c | 1,680$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 1,283$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.59 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 58c | 1,037$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 46c | 645$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.3 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Under | 59c | 580$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.2 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 534$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.02 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 503.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 43c | 431.4$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.9 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Over | 46c | 365.2$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 54c | 350.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 59c | 279.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 52c | 257.29$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 243.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…a9ffbacked Over | 47c | 234.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…3c87backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 42c | 192.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…32b0backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -6.2wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Under | 57c | 142.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 39c | 141.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 51c | 136.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 134.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 50c | 133.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 50c | 110.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…2b8fbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 51c | 103.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 103.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 44c | 98.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 46c | 84.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Over | 46c | 72.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 79c | 70.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…8eb4backed Over | 46c | 64.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…21b1backed Over | 46c | 64.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…1e49backed Under | 55c | 51.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Under | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…9199backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 50c | 37.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc3…ba8ebacked Over | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Over | 46c | 25.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…ef51backed Over | 46c | 21.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -10.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsYes won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago CubsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.