TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e4a…311cbacked Washington Nationals56c6,588$3,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,905.2212247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chicago Cubs45c5,884$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.3846547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chicago Cubs46c5,833$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.467250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Chicago Cubs45c5,696$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.7123538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs46c5,500$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,552.471,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Washington Nationals54c5,331$2,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,452.2627254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Washington Nationals52c4,635$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,241.754148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Washington Nationals55c3,988$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.6484049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Washington Nationals58c3,529$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.9215550.3%78 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Washington Nationals53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,41024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2842…8052backed Chicago Cubs45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Chicago Cubs49c2,020$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.7132152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Washington Nationals53c1,391$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.711256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Chicago Cubs45c1,109$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8410033%33 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked Chicago Cubs46c849$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5611454.4%62 W · 52 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Washington Nationals52c709.5$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.469455.3%52 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals52c703$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.441,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Chicago Cubs49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011652.6%61 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Chicago Cubs48c610$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.85743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Washington Nationals55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2259655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Washington Nationals59c462.98$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.085354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Chicago Cubs19c437.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1754715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chicago Cubs21c424$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.091,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Chicago Cubs49c401.67$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8140%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Chicago Cubs49c316$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8419848.5%96 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1326,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9386…cfe5backed Chicago Cubs50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Chicago Cubs51c228.05$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11666448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Washington Nationals53c213.21$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.216253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked Chicago Cubs47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9440%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Chicago Cubs49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9841152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals66c175.46$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.411,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Chicago Cubs31c161.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5521842.7%93 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Washington Nationals55c155$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7575049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Washington Nationals53c150.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9466551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Chicago Cubs48c136.5$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.521,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals49c131.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.141,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Washington Nationals78c128.59$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.293246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2942…a018backed Washington Nationals55c123.64$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6413351.9%69 W · 64 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals72c107.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.446,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals52c103.34$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.885,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4634145.2%154 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Chicago Cubs48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4827248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf4…3c87backed Washington Nationals53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs35c83.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.889,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Chicago Cubs49c81.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018048.3%87 W · 93 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…4648backed Chicago Cubs48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.43458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed Chicago Cubs37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.646659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Washington Nationals51c56.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4726056.5%147 W · 113 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Chicago Cubs45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255940.7%24 W · 35 L-7.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Washington Nationals53c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.854052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Washington Nationals55c53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.852218.2%4 W · 18 L-5.5wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-60.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs23c50.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4384122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Washington Nationals51c49.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0514442.4%61 W · 83 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago Cubs39c44.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Chicago Cubs39c44.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9928646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Chicago Cubs39c43.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9625349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Washington Nationals51c40.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0947848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Washington Nationals52c40.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5932348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8742…5e43backed Washington Nationals61c40.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6af…532dbacked Chicago Cubs36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Washington Nationals50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20419.8%4 W · 37 L-10.5wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-62.6%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Washington Nationals53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7433051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Washington Nationals65c37.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1316453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Washington Nationals51c36.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6914444.4%64 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Cubs50c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Washington Nationals52c30.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7731250%156 W · 156 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Chicago Cubs37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Chicago Cubs44c29.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910539%41 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Chicago Cubs45c29.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.323438.2%13 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4625…f7f6backed Chicago Cubs42c25.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Cubs44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Washington Nationals56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1189950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Chicago Cubs47c22.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.724420.5%9 W · 35 L-9.2wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x4ee3…bf37backed Washington Nationals55c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Cubs48c21.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.031,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.