NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf62a6eb7a1eee67429e68333def10de7774bdabbcae736238c27eae3c9af38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Bulls, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 56c | 1,987$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 1,356$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,343$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.57 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 1,100$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…8ed0backed Bulls | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…7c99backed Bulls | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…82c3backed Bulls | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Bulls | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…c1a4backed Bulls | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Bulls | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bulls | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Bulls | 55c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Trail Blazers | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…6bc8backed Bulls | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Bulls | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…3e55backed Bulls | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Bulls | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 35.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…8f51backed Bulls | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Bulls | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Bulls | 54c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Bulls | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Bulls | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. Trail BlazersBulls won
- Bulls vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 243.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 244.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.