Tennis · resolved market
ITF Lexington: Sara Saito vs Erika Sema
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d2a937c2fc317f756c0d53e17c4b23a34fc129c024e310058cc738f38ebcc83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sara Saitoof Sara Saito, Erika Sema
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sara Saito | 68c | 3,505$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.4 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Sara Saito | 63c | 2,937$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.55 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Erika Sema | 33c | 1,881$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.89 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Erika Sema | 50c | 1,450$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.27 | 8,396 | 42.6%3,578 W · 4,818 L | -162.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c336backed Erika Sema | 29c | 1,018$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.37 | 221 | 23.1%51 W · 170 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Erika Sema | 9c | 514.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Erika Sema | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Erika Sema | 34c | 475.91$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.43 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Erika Sema | 44c | 430.13$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 2,754 | 53.8%1,481 W · 1,273 L | +71.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Sara Saito | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 259 | 50.2%130 W · 129 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…35b8backed Sara Saito | 67c | 368.91$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.74 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Erika Sema | 36c | 214.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Erika Sema | 42c | 208.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 1,624 | 54.4%883 W · 741 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Erika Sema | 62c | 190.97$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Erika Sema | 74c | 118.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 502 | 68.3%343 W · 159 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sara Saito | 68c | 118$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Erika Sema | 36c | 110.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,657 | 44.2%733 W · 924 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Erika Sema | 41c | 97.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 507 | 46.5%236 W · 271 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Erika Sema | 24c | 91.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Erika Sema | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 941 | 49.5%466 W · 475 L | +17.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Erika Sema | 44c | 84.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…e3d8backed Sara Saito | 66c | 59.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 335 | 50.7%170 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Erika Sema | 23c | 51.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Erika Sema | 38c | 49.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Sara Saito | 39c | 48.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 1,002 | 50.2%503 W · 499 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Erika Sema | 37c | 48.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,821 | 39.5%1,113 W · 1,708 L | -82.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Erika Sema | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Erika Sema | 23c | 44.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Erika Sema | 30c | 43.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked Sara Saito | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…c5ffbacked Sara Saito | 76c | 38.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…16a8backed Sara Saito | 76c | 38.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed Sara Saito | 76c | 37.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Sara Saito | 79c | 37.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 282 | 64.2%181 W · 101 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sara Saito | 53c | 35.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Sara Saito | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sara Saito | 54c | 29.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77df…068bbacked Sara Saito | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Erika Sema | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 421 | 51.1%215 W · 206 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Erika Sema | 61c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Sara Saito | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Sara Saito | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,013 | 53.8%545 W · 468 L | +35.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sara Saito | 71c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3,541 | 42.4%1,501 W · 2,040 L | -44.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.