La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d310a5887cf05582956237ab2215cf1b7afdbedaff705bd3eebddaa0c2c01cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked No | 73c | 34,316$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,316.31 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 19,409$5,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,240.41 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Yes | 27c | 7,087$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.4 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 3,705$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.56 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 24c | 2,152$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.94 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 28c | 2,005$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 22c | 1,305$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.04 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 5c | 1,203$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176d…d17fbacked Yes | 11c | 909$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…5f1ebacked Yes | 30c | 633.33$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 448.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…1159backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 28c | 403$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 17c | 350$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…c6bbbacked Yes | 16c | 320.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 28c | 261.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 30c | 231$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 200.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 129 | 17.8%23 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…32c9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…c4a3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…14c0backed No | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 70c | 161$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…2277backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857b…8eeebacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 28c | 143.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…27b6backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2b…a38dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Yes | 30c | 107$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 70c | 101.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 12c | 101.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 100.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 502 | 43.4%218 W · 284 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…2236backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Yes | 29c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 29c | 90.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…16e8backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…8a75backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 29c | 56.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 71c | 54.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 69c | 45.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed No | 70c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…d326backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da2…ed3abacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…dad2backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfd…3191backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd34…1085backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 79c | 13.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.