La Liga · resolved market
Will Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc3bd148842f8074d60c3d4182a9a047f0da29739e22133e5b39a7c6b35a2cf8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x960f…1159backed Yes | 1c | 7,510$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 4,246$2,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.73 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 2,861$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.66 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…c8d3backed No | 70c | 2,356$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 67c | 1,577$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.08 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 32c | 1,073$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.83 | 306 | 34.6%106 W · 200 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347c…525abacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 68c | 872.26$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.12 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 30c | 728.71$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.61 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 69c | 685.51$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.51 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 491.2$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 76c | 473.85$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 23c | 362.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 27.8%40 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 311.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…b796backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked Yes | 34c | 289.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 67c | 283.64$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 215.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…a3f3backed Yes | 25c | 199.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 158$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…c795backed Yes | 25c | 117.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Yes | 24c | 116$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 10c | 109.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 30c | 106$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 17c | 83.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 69c | 79.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…3a74backed No | 70c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 70c | 72.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 68c | 67.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 31c | 63.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…1204backed No | 69c | 61.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 58.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…ccc2backed Yes | 34c | 55.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 21c | 55.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 67c | 50.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…5ee5backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 76c | 45.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…92a0backed Yes | 31c | 44.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…5abfbacked Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Yes | 30c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…a27ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 285 | 58.2%166 W · 119 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 75c | 24.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…f9b5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed No | 75c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd34…1085backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 69c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elche CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.