Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d3e6620e86fcc31ac0aa6541584bedd58333e8b9db094241b7409ff7618688a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec87…43f9backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 621.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 37c | 431.7$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 13c | 188.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 179.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 80c | 167.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 144.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 26c | 134.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 128.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 125.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 18c | 122.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 24c | 120.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 116.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 29c | 113.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 15c | 100.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…f88ebacked No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 65c | 99.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 29c | 99.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 33c | 87.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 16c | 83.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 32c | 81.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 16c | 81.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…4138backed No | 18c | 79.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 13c | 79.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 75c | 73.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed No | 18c | 65.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 78c | 64.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 66c | 63.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 72c | 62.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…fc51backed Yes | 74c | 47.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 76c | 46.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 62c | 46.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 39c | 45.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…78d6backed Yes | 76c | 43.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…c0e3backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 78c | 33.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 73c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 76c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 75c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…6c18backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…3fd3backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.