Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5fa7b2632d5c3baa8c4c48498d810efbc66d2e0cea27d40ea951d83235b01d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 950.36$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 44c | 534.89$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.06 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 16c | 411.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 36c | 383.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 4c | 355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 294.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 262.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked No | 40c | 207.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 116.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 116$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 37c | 109.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 107.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 65c | 106.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 58c | 103.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 57c | 90.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 83.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 82.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 63c | 76.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 75.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 42c | 75.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 74.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 73.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 59c | 55.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 60c | 51.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 64c | 48.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 40.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Yes | 60c | 35.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 28.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed No | 51c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 41c | 24.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7d…0fa8backed No | 66c | 19.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…3d58backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.