Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9fd38447537def393e69d0dd00989f737cd673252db155af324526870dc49e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 49c | 1,994$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.69 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 54c | 434$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 51c | 385$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 51c | 368.16$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 346$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 291.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 51c | 224$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 200.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 59c | 196.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 142.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…dd7ebacked Yes | 11c | 127.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 101.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 99.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 87.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…f06ebacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…c2cbbacked Yes | 51c | 76.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 76.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…6854backed Yes | 51c | 72.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 44c | 69.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 54c | 67.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4d…90dfbacked Yes | 51c | 65.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 49c | 63.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 54.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 50c | 50.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 48.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 47.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 44.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…9617backed No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 53c | 39.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac84…4dbabacked No | 66c | 37.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 38c | 34.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 33.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…5891backed Yes | 36c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 30.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 41c | 24.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 58c | 22.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…1b8abacked No | 67c | 21.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 20.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22dd…0fb3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.