Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3da4277d584eac04815da74ebb8b9c3dad755b23bf93ffeb87882c1caf691830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 3c | 1,610$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 5c | 405.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.77 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 350.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 310.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 302.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 274.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 7c | 252.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.48 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 218.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 169.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 154.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 19c | 140.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 70c | 105.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 70c | 102.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 99.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 50c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 13c | 85.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 67.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 66.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 79c | 63.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…dfe5backed No | 25c | 56.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 56c | 50.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 80c | 50.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 48.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 60c | 39.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.