Music · resolved market
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dc14b8ba7f12a78c5196471257cf988c910d26d20e1edc145128b0cd674e969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,254$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed Yes | 8c | 3,617$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,726$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…a399backed Yes | 5c | 1,561$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…46d0backed Yes | 14c | 1,476$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,187$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 13c | 1,089$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…688bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,029$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 721.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa161…86fdbacked Yes | 4c | 464.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 17c | 380.22$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 79c | 324$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x281f…4eb7backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 15c | 199.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 11c | 177.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc6…2bbcbacked Yes | 11c | 130.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 74c | 21.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?this page
- Will 'Actually Romantic' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Eldest Daughter' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Elizabeth Taylor' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Father Figure' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Opalite' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Ruin The Friendship' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the most streamed song on 'The Life of a Showgirl' on Oct 10th?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.