MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de038e286733a2fc53c9611fbb73cf4fd895bb00505200987c8766d8aaa5d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 784.01$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.09 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 652$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 650.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 18c | 459$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.38 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 17c | 334.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 39c | 316.02$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cleveland Guardians | 16c | 129.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros | 46c | 103.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 85.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros | 44c | 83.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros | 43c | 78.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…7541backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 32c | 58.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros | 32c | 53.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Houston Astros | 38c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Houston Astros | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 76c | 42.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b9…e2debacked Houston Astros | 36c | 32.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…13b7backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 26.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…fc9cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 26.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 26.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…6977backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 25.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 25.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…d4a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 24.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 24.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…f54bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 24.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…34f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 24.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…d255backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…db1fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…745bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233c…6996backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d69…bc81backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…8e36backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…b21dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…0fdcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 23.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 22.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…7ed8backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…da3fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…7ed6backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…28bdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…8623backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 67cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…6ed2backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…ced7backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 21.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…4d52backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 21.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 68cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…6ddabacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 21.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…c0f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…1e56backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 21.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…8ca5backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0b33backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…09b8backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…02acbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2685…8918backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…dd72backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 19.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4886backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 19.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c213backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…b7dcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 18.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 18.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.