MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8911d1826ef2b1127f88e5abc6ab1a3d7e30fc72111898b3529d68f3c5fa42d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 65c | 2,841$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.35 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,781$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 44c | 1,036$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.19 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 750$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 51c | 665.23$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 35c | 634.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 553.7$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.31 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 35c | 528.57$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…e1a1backed Under | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 371.07$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.89 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 357.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.62 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 35c | 346$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…8f17backed Under | 53c | 311.83$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 287.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 63c | 256.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 57c | 254.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.49 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 245.82$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 59c | 218.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 52c | 185$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 50c | 173.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 8c | 170.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 35c | 167$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 139$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 113.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 54c | 91.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 86.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b9…e2debacked Under | 60c | 82.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 77.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 53c | 66.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 28c | 51.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 53c | 44.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 53c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…5c85backed Under | 59c | 29.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Over | 46c | 26.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 46c | 23.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Under | 75c | 21.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.