TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,298
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,298 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians76c782.83$596 inLost-$596.162,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros23c596.28$136 inWon+$460.742,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians76c427.22$326 inLost-$326.112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians65c310$202 inLost-$201.548354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros28c247.6$70 inWon+$177.175,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Houston Astros22c224.61$49 inWon+$175.191,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians74c221.18$164 inLost-$163.5911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Houston Astros37c204.77$76 inWon+$129.0357747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Houston Astros22c203.93$45 inWon+$159.0727652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros21c183$39 inWon+$143.678,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians33c154.46$51 inLost-$50.965,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Houston Astros36c138.89$50 inWon+$88.8947849%234 W · 244 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros35c126.85$44 inWon+$82.456,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros59c123.46$73 inWon+$50.151,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros26c120.96$31 inWon+$89.513,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians64c71.77$46 inLost-$45.935,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros31c61.36$19 inWon+$42.331,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros23c51.35$12 inWon+$39.672,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians80c50$40 inLost-$402,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Cleveland Guardians39c46.31$18 inLost-$18.061,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros36c37$13 inWon+$23.6872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cleveland Guardians75c32$24 inLost-$2470737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians69c30.7$21 inLost-$21.062,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ac…427fbacked Cleveland Guardians77c28.42$22 inLost-$21.887050%35 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cleveland Guardians64c25.86$17 inLost-$16.551,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians64c20$13 inLost-$12.82,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Cleveland Guardians78c19.49$15 inLost-$15.226063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Cleveland Guardians78c19.23$15 inLost-$1544345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Cleveland Guardians75c16.02$12 inLost-$11.961,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf180…3b6cbacked Cleveland Guardians77c15.51$12 inLost-$121833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians65c15.4$10 inLost-$10.011,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.