Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df25b6108939591ce2f3ad1ebef56cc83733afb11a61d272628a06edb8aaaa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 783.27$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 600.62$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 339.91$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 253.18$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 67c | 239.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 228.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 152.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 136$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 126.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 109.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 86.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 78.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 77.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 36c | 69.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 66.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 63.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 57.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 57.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 55c | 50.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 49.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 59c | 48.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 47.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 45.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 42.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 41.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 39.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 39c | 37.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 36c | 35.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 35.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 35c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 47c | 26.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.