Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1b524d0bb4b6c6a291170bca6aa86741ced83e22d505ad08564917d2f3b9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 2,055$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.26 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 1,306$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 921.59$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.16 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 719.85$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.82 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 581.2$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 412.27$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 55c | 409.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 351$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.17 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 68c | 227$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 177.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 172$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 164.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 47c | 161.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 145.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…77b6backed Yes | 33c | 133.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…3c70backed Yes | 33c | 132.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 125.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…6544backed Yes | 33c | 116.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 17c | 112.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 60c | 112$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 109.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 97.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 68c | 94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 36c | 90.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 86.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 83.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…7e92backed Yes | 36c | 83.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 57.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 57.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 44c | 56.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 29c | 55.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 30c | 49.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 54c | 48.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 42c | 47.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 44.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 41.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 37.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 58c | 33.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 58c | 31.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 55c | 30.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 57c | 18.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 66c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 17.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 15.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.