Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana reach $140 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e0deaaf2c412d5f739242ee0bbb458acd40c35b78d096409c70f9fe0ab9cf00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 10c | 15,904$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.68 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,907$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…b3d8backed Yes | 8c | 6,038$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,923$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 14c | 1,824$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.9 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,481$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dae…18b4backed Yes | 14c | 1,381$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…a660backed Yes | 3c | 1,306$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,211$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,099$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6563…5f50backed Yes | 6c | 916.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…8606backed Yes | 9c | 797.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…17adbacked Yes | 19c | 792.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 8c | 760.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 9c | 711.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 10c | 699.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 624.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047d…a8b7backed Yes | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 6c | 591.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 561.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed Yes | 6c | 558.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 503.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…a02abacked Yes | 10c | 502.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 11c | 352.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…91bdbacked Yes | 11c | 348.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…b838backed Yes | 10c | 333.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…e875backed Yes | 13c | 297.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…8df7backed Yes | 3c | 294.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 8c | 212.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…5ce5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 18c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…0e27backed Yes | 17c | 156.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…9c25backed Yes | 8c | 136.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Yes | 12c | 132.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…e8dfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…ee17backed Yes | 13c | 99.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Yes | 13c | 85.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x194d…e9acbacked Yes | 13c | 79.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…2f4bbacked Yes | 21c | 68.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed No | 79c | 16.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana reach $140 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Solana dip to $110 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Solana dip to $120 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Solana dip to $90 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.