Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $120 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80b5aa2d87f7d123f9f2db9a99fffa845c41219639f75ad92c4052f36eee9ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6af5…42cebacked No | 78c | 12,204$9,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.92 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf87d…80dcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,594$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…b3d8backed Yes | 3c | 5,933$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 52c | 4,405$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.85 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 24c | 4,359$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.64 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 26c | 4,159$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.5 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb4…6f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,593$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,261$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27bd…6bd5backed No | 48c | 1,023$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 857.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 844.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 689.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 536.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 59c | 530$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.68 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…8606backed Yes | 4c | 515.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…208abacked Yes | 67c | 430$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dae…18b4backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 9c | 134.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b93…0163backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a68…ff59backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 19c | 84.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 47c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Yes | 27c | 41.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…6eb4backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…4b32backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…66b0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 51c | 19.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $120 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Solana dip to $110 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Solana dip to $80 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Solana dip to $90 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Solana reach $140 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.