CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e153f92b1cd2c3068efd920f56bfd3f9d5a30ace680b1506a565a2c7350c650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Aurora Gaming, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Aurora Gaming | 71c | 45,734$32,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,389.01 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Heroic | 33c | 13,483$4,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,094.79 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Heroic | 29c | 9,985$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,089.1 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Heroic | 28c | 9,444$2,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,755.24 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Heroic | 29c | 6,563$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,661.55 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Heroic | 29c | 5,676$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.96 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Aurora Gaming | 12c | 5,638$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.63 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Aurora Gaming | 71c | 3,290$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 42c | 2,228$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Aurora Gaming | 74c | 2,015$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.44 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Heroic | 73c | 2,013$1,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.74 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d2aebacked Aurora Gaming | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Aurora Gaming | 26c | 2,000$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora Gaming | 32c | 1,996$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.01 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Heroic | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.95 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heroic | 28c | 1,482$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.92 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 29c | 1,200$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora Gaming | 47c | 1,182$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Heroic | 29c | 1,116$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.63 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Aurora Gaming | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Heroic | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad2…98c6backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 888.06$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 28c | 777$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.44 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 46c | 617.61$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.25 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fa…2afebacked Aurora Gaming | 47c | 520.49$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked Heroic | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Heroic | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Aurora Gaming | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Heroic | 28c | 499.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed Heroic | 32c | 490$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Heroic | 53c | 488.57$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.63 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heroic | 28c | 471.34$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.36 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a94fbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 416.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.23 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…eaf3backed Heroic | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 376.69$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.22 | 279 | 50.2%140 W · 139 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Aurora Gaming | 33c | 363.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Heroic | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Heroic | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Heroic | 49c | 255.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Aurora Gaming | 61c | 245.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Heroic | 47c | 210.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 166 | 49.4%82 W · 84 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Heroic | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Heroic | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 40c | 169.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Aurora Gaming | 35c | 157.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Heroic | 50c | 157.42$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora Gaming | 57c | 140.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…dc27backed Heroic | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cd0abacked Aurora Gaming | 25c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 121.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…4946backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 120.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…b276backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 113.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…574cbacked Heroic | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Aurora Gaming | 41c | 85.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…1774backed Aurora Gaming | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9978…aaaebacked Aurora Gaming | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Aurora Gaming | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Heroic | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Aurora Gaming | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora Gaming | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99de…7b9bbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed Aurora Gaming | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora Gaming | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…d93abacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 32.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora Gaming | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed Aurora Gaming | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.