MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e154fdc23683db4d0ba6fc698bc3c806bfa4da3520befd3f9158da6163badc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 28,588$18,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,745.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 23,377$7,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,173.04 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 8,211$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,090.81 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 7,991$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.14 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 4,931$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.45 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 4,697$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 3,500$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.85 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 2,400$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 2,324$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.24 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 2,151$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.1 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,935$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.41 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,614$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.82 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 1,484$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.62 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 1,200$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.11 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 855.43$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.07 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 705.28$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.22 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Seattle Mariners | 79c | 648.75$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 643.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.59 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 533.96$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.27 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 421.56$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.58 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 396.69$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Seattle Mariners | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6638…2114backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 330$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 324$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 307.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Boston Red Sox | 32c | 201.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Boston Red Sox | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 367 | 29.4%108 W · 259 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 160.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 121.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 157 | 57.3%90 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…523fbacked Seattle Mariners | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 40.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…973ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 38.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 33.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 29.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.